Discussion

Exercise

In this module we explored different types of reasoning, including thought experiments, subjective and objective claims, and scientific reasoning. At the end of Chapter 2 in Critical Reasoning and Writing on pgs. 20 and 21, the authors describe the Monty Hall Problem which demonstrates how knowing more helps us to guess better, even when it seems like the outcome is already fixed. Please reflect on the questions at the end of the chapter 2 about the Monty Hall problem in about 300 to 400 words. Here are the questions:

“Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, ‘Do you want to pick door No. 2?’ Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?”

Is it to your advantage to switch? Does it matter? Think about what you would do and why. Try it out yourself in a little experiment where you use cards to represent the goats and car. Pretend to be the contestant and host by picking a door and then either switching or staying with your door. Try sticking with your pick the first 10 times and then switching the next 10 times (remember that Monty Hall will ALWAYS show you a goat when he reveals a door). Was there any difference in outcome? Why do you think you got these results? You can look online for further discussions of this ‘puzzle.’ (pg. 21)

Please read and respond to at least two of your peers’ posts in 75 to 100 words each.