Creating a Fraction of Selection

The Fraction of Selection

(Adapted from a Stanley Baran text)

An important part of being media literate is having critical thinking skills enabling you to develop independent judgments about media and media content. Challenge your own skill by predicting which media will survive and which will disappear as a result of the dramatic technological, economic, and audience preference turmoil currently shaking the traditional media industries. Which will change and how? The answers depend on you and your media choices. In 1954, when television was doing to movies, newspapers, magazines, and radio what the Internet and smartphones are doing to todays media, communication scholar Wilbur Schramm created the fraction of selection to answer the question, What determines which offerings of mass communication will be selected by a given individual? It looks like this:

Expectation of Reward

———————————— (divided by)

Effort Required

It suggests that you weigh the level of reward you expect from a given medium or piece of content against how much effortin the broadest senseyou make to secure that reward. Now, consider your own media consumption. For example, how do you typically watch movies: at the theater, streamed, downloaded, on disc, wait for them to come to cable? What data would go in your numerator? In your denominator?

You could choose, for instance, to put both parts of the fraction as a scale of 1-10, with 1 being the least useful to use or least rewarding to 10 being the most. So for me, for instance, “Watching broadcast TV.” My expectation of reward is low; most broadcast shows are not very good, so I say, maybe, a 5. Effort required: It is very easy, so I would say a 10, as I just use one clicker to make it work. So my chance of using the medium: 5/10 or 50 percent. But for my Sling TV, my reward expectation is an 8 because it has better shows, but using it is harder, because I have to switch the TV over with one clicker and use a Roku clicker to choose Sling, and then it comes up and then I have to wait for it to load etc. So that is a 6, for an 8/6. A 133 percent chance I will use it, or a 133 score is more like it. I can then enter ALL my media options and score them accordingly.

Your formula should be thought-provoking or fun or otherwise illuminating, but there is no one right or wrong formula. I want to see your thought process more than the outcome of it (the formula). Using the Schramm formula will limit your grade to 75 at the highest. I want to see a thought-out, creative formula/fraction of your devising.

Assignment Title: Predicting the Future of Media Consumption

Purpose:

This assignment is designed to help you:

• Apply mass communication theories to understand and forecast media consumption trends.
• Evaluate the role and impact of different media in everyday life.
• Explore how technological, economic, and audience preference changes affect media viability and survival.
• Develop and apply critical thinking skills to create a formula predicting which media forms will thrive or diminish in the future.

By completing this assignment, you will enhance your ability to critically assess media trends and make informed predictions about the future of mass media.

Task:

1. Develop a Formula:

• Create a unique formula that explains media consumption. This formula should be thought-provoking and reflective of your understanding of media theories, as discussed in Chapters 1 and 2 of our textbook and additional research from reputable sources.
• Your formula should go beyond the Schramm “Fraction of Selection” model and incorporate your own insights and creativity.
• Explain the rationale behind your formula, linking it to the concepts covered in the course and supported by scholarly research or reputable media sources.

1. Apply Your Formula:

• Test your formula by assessing the media consumption habits of yourself and five friends or family members. Use your formula to rate these habits across nine specific media: Broadcast TV, streaming services (e.g., Hulu, Netflix), online newspapers, print newspapers, video game consoles, online gaming, terrestrial radio (car), streaming music services, and Facebook.
• Present your findings in a clear, tabular format using the first names of your subjects.

1. Analyze Your Results:

• Based on your data, speculate on which media are likely to succeed or fail in the future. Consider the broader media landscape in your analysis.
• Identify any media that may need to improve in terms of ease of use, rewards, or interactivity to remain relevant.

1. Submit Your Work:

• Write a concise report answering all three tasks (1, 2, and 3) in a clear and organized manner.
• Include a “Sources Cited” section, following proper citation guidelines as outlined in the provided “Referencing and Formatting Guide.”
• Submit your report via Packback Deep Dives.

Criteria for Success:

• Clarity and Creativity of the Formula: Your formula should be original, clearly stated, and well-explained, with a strong connection to mass communication theories.
• Application of the Formula: Your analysis should be thorough, with all nine media types assessed, and the results presented in an easy-to-read table.
• Analysis and Insight: Your predictions about the future of media should be insightful, well-reasoned, and backed by your data and research.
• Research and Citation: You must use and correctly cite at least five reputable sources, integrating them effectively into your explanation and analysis.
• Presentation and Submission: Your report should be concise, well-organized, and free from unnecessary jargon or filler. Proper citation and formatting are required.